Clapp Weekly: Iran relief, Google's quantum bomb, 401(k) crypto door opens

BTC price

Bitcoin rose beyond $68k, tracking US stocks higher, after Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly signaled willingness to end the conflict. The coin narrowly escaped a six-month losing streak amid macro pressures, gaining 1.81% in March — the only other time BTC slid for five consecutive months was in 2018. Adding to the uncertainty: renewed concerns over quantum computing.

BTC cratered from $71,631.72 on March 26 to $65,604.15 the following day, then spent several days wrestling with $67k. A March 30 surge pushed it toward $78k, and after rebounding from $66k, the coin is now climbing.

Currently trading at $68,812.75, BTC is up 2.2% over the past 24 hours with a weekly loss of 3.2%.

ETH price

Ether is feeling the heat from growing ETF outflows and weakening demand. Like Bitcoin, it reversed a five-month losing streak in March, gaining 6.97%. But US spot ETFs have now lost over $440 million over eight consecutive days, attracting just $5 million in inflows on March 30 — compared to $69.4 million for Bitcoin counterparts. Large ETH holders, meanwhile, are hesitating to accumulate.

ETH followed Bitcoin lower, sliding from $2,185.59 to $1,976.69 on March 27. It spent three days battling the $2k level, briefly topped $2,017 on March 30, then consolidated before bouncing from $2,014 into a fresh rally.

Changing hands at $2,141.58, ETH is up 4.2% over the past 24 hours with a loss of 1.1% over the past 7 days.

Seven-day altcoin dynamics

While sentiment remains in the "Extreme Fear" zone, crypto prices ticked higher on hopes for a diplomatic off-ramp in the ongoing Iran war. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly showed readiness to end the conflict, saying any decision must "guarantee the security and interests of the Iranian people."

President Trump said he expects the war to end in two or three weeks, and that the US will "leave whether we have a deal or not" once he's certain the regime cannot build a nuclear weapon "for years." The news eased fears of a wider regional war.

Bitcoin rallied alongside stocks, lifting altcoins as oil prices dipped. At press time, May contracts for Brent and WTI crude are trading at $100.62 and $98.03 per barrel, respectively.

Altcoins show historic underperformance

A CryptoQuant report reveals that nearly 40% of altcoins have either reached their all-time lows or are currently trading near those levels. In the previous bear market, that share peaked at only about 38%.

Aside from varied macro shocks suppressing sentiment, the sheer number of tokens in existence (over 47 million) "directly leads to liquidity dilution, making altcoins increasingly fragile over time," as explained by Darkfost.

However, the Altcoin Season Index has held relatively firm on a 90-day timeframe. Hyperliquid (HYPE), MemeCore (M), Canton Network (CC), and Bittensor (TAO) have led gains among 18 other altcoins.

March jobs report in focus

The Federal Reserve paused rate cuts earlier this year as inflation ticked higher. This week, a cooling labor market might force its hand.

The March jobs report, due April 3, is a crucial driver for Fed easing odds. Nonfarm payrolls are projected to rebound to 56,000 after surprise layoffs in February (-92,000) reignited recession fears. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%.

US JOLTS job openings have slipped — another sign of a softer labor market. The 6.882 million February openings came in slightly below forecasts, while hiring fell to its lowest level since April 2020.

The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data on April 1 will flash an early warning. Analysts anticipate a sharp slump (from 63,000 to 42,000). Should the figures disappoint, pressure on the Fed to pivot might intensify.

Top weekly winners

• M (+34.7%) is leading the market surge, propelled by successful upgrades and a new perpetual listing with 50x leverage and trading incentives. The MemeCore hard fork and account abstraction enable a "smooth, cheaper ride" in the ecosystem.
• ALGO (+15.7%) is being propelled by the broader upturn alongside technical and market-driven factors, as the token had been oversold for an extended period. In addition, Algorand staking is now live on Revolut, enabling 70 million+ neobank users to earn ALGO rewards within the app.
• STABLE (+8.1%) is riding the broader crypto bounce, supported by a massive surge in trading volume. The latter more than tripled (+207.83%) in 24 hours, reaching $52.54 million.

Top weekly losers

• APT (-15.6%) is tumbling following a 10x gas fee increase, aimed at enhancing network economics and reducing congestion. Amid the downturn, the token achieved 264.5 million monthly transactions — its third-highest activity level in history — as participation remains strong.
• HASH (-14.7%) saw over $170 million of its market cap vanish on March 29. Analysts point to an alarming volume-to-market-cap ratio of roughly 0.002% (~0.00877% at press time), versus 5%-15% for established assets. With its 24-hour trading volume hitting $12,644, Provenance Blockchain is in a liquidity crunch.
• ZRO (-14.0%) is affected by a transfer of almost 8 million ZRO from Alameda Research to market maker Wintermute, interpreted as imminent sell pressure. Traders expect the amount to be distributed across centralized and decentralized venues, at least partly.

Cryptocurrency news

Quantum storm: Google just told crypto the clock is ticking faster

For years, quantum computing was crypto's favorite theoretical boogeyman — a distant threat to worry about in the 2030s, maybe later. Then Google dropped a paper that changed the math.

New research from Google's Quantum AI team found that breaking Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography could require fewer than 500,000 physical qubits. That's a 20‑fold reduction from previous estimates that put the requirement in the millions.

The whitepaper also described how a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could crack a Bitcoin private key in about nine minutes once a transaction exposes a public key.

That timeline is the end of this decade, not mid-2030s.

"We are no longer looking at mid-2030s, we could have quantum computers of this scale by the end of the decade," wrote Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly. "All blockchains need a transition plan ASAP. Post-quantum is no longer a drill."

A paper with secrets

One detail raised eyebrows across crypto X. Google didn't publish the actual quantum circuits — only a zero-knowledge proof verifying the circuits exist without revealing how they work.

"This is very atypical, showing Google thinks this is serious," Qureshi noted.

Justin Drake, an Ethereum Foundation researcher who joined the Google paper as a late co-author, said his "confidence in q-day by 2032 has shot up significantly," estimating at least a 10% chance a quantum computer recovers a private key from an exposed public key by that date.

Exposed wallets — 6.9M BTC at risk

The paper estimates roughly 6.9 million bitcoin — about one‑third of the total supply — sit in wallets where public keys have already been exposed. That includes 1.7 million BTC from the network's early years, including Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings, plus funds affected by address reuse.

Bitcoin's 2021 Taproot upgrade, a technical move designed for efficiency and privacy, also exposed public keys by default.

Ethereum prepares, Bitcoin debates

The reaction split along familiar lines. Ethereum's preparation drew praise; Bitcoin's lack of it drew alarm.

The Ethereum Foundation launched pq.ethereum.org last week with eight years of post-quantum research, over 10 client teams shipping weekly devnets, and a multi‑fork migration roadmap.

Drake, who co‑authored the Google paper, is part of that same team — a direct link between the researchers quantifying the threat and the developers building the defense.

For Bitcoin, the path is murkier. Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao urged calm but acknowledged the difficulty. "All crypto has to do is upgrade to quantum‑resistant algorithms. So, no need to panic. In practice, there are some execution considerations. It's hard to organize upgrades in a decentralized world."

Zhao also raised the Satoshi question directly: if those coins move during a migration, "it means he is still around, which is interesting to know." If they don't, he said, "it might be better to lock or effectively burn those addresses."

The clock is ticking

Google framed its research not as an attack on crypto but as an effort to "support the long‑term health of the cryptocurrency ecosystem."

The message from nearly every corner of the industry is now the same: the threat is no longer theoretical. The only question is whether the protocols that need to migrate will do so before the hardware catches up.

$10T in 401(k) money may now look at crypto

For years, the holy grail of crypto adoption has been hiding in plain sight: America's retirement accounts. The US Department of Labor's new proposed rule may create a "safe harbor" for 401(k) plan managers who want to include crypto and other alternative assets — provided they follow a defined fiduciary process.

It's a direct implementation of President Trump's August executive order. While the proposal doesn't explicitly approve crypto for retirement plans, it removes the single biggest legal deterrent that kept 401(k) administrators on the sidelines.

How it actually works

Under ERISA, plan fiduciaries have always had the legal authority to consider alternative assets. The barrier was regulatory ambiguity. A 2022 Biden-era compliance release urged plan managers to apply "extreme caution" to crypto — effectively signaling enforcement scrutiny. The DOL rescinded that guidance last May.

Now, the new proposal completes the architecture. Plan managers who evaluate risk, return, fees, liquidity, valuation, and complexity get a clear safe harbor. No explicit ban or approval of specific assets. Just a documented process and legal protection.

"Retirement funds are the holy grail for Bitcoin enthusiasts looking for new investors: oceans of cash, tax-advantaged," said Andrew M. Bailey, senior fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute.

But retirement plans carry a built-in tension, Bailey noted.

"Their horizons — decades, not months or years — make them well-suited for long-term investment in new technologies. Their approach to risk and tight regulations pulls them in the opposite direction."

The numbers are staggering

Americans held roughly $10.1 trillion in 401(k) plans as of the end of 2025, part of a broader $14.2 trillion defined contribution market. Yet only 4% of defined contribution plans offered alternative investments last year, with just 0.1% of assets allocated to them.

That's about to change — if savers bite.

Joshua Chu, lawyer and co-chair of the Hong Kong Web3 Association, said the proposal places digital assets "on the same playing field" as other alternatives.

"If a fiduciary can document a robust process on fees, liquidity, valuation and complexity, they now have a clear safe harbor roadmap instead of a regulatory minefield."

For crypto, the math is simple: $12 trillion in potential new capital, channeled through the world's most conservative investment vehicles. Whether that money actually moves depends on plan sponsors building the infrastructure, and on savers deciding they want a piece of the action.

The pushback

Not everyone is celebrating. Sen. Elizabeth Warren blasted the move in a March 30 statement: "Anyone who cares about the financial security of working people should oppose this proposed rule."

Critics argue private equity and crypto are risky, complex, and opaque — a poor fit for retirement savers.

What happens next

A 60-day public comment period follows Federal Register publication. Finalization is expected within months. Indiana's state-level crypto mandate takes effect July 1, 2027 — a sign that the momentum is building regardless of federal timelines.